Slovan Liberec 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hradec Králové travel to Stadion U Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovan Liberec stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Slovan Liberec's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slovan Liberec are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Hradec Králové and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 3–2 Hradec Králové — a Slovan Liberec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 44% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 44% | Hradec Králové 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.113 / defence 0.724 | Hradec Králové attack 0.923 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.724), which is pulling Hradec Králové's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 53 games and Hradec Králové's last 53.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 15%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.72 | Draw 3.78 | Hradec Králové 6.48. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 20% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.65 / Hradec Králové 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.113 / def 0.724 | Hradec Králové attack 0.923 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Hradec Králové xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 58% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 53 games and Hradec Králové's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.78
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.39
0.74
Hradec Králové xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
33.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.74 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 16D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (21W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.49 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.31 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.74 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won Hradec Králové 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Hradec Králové 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 56% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 44% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 56% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.74 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.72 against Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 15%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.49 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.