FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Střelnice this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.60 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 64% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 55% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.69 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.158 / defence 1.066 | Hradec Králové attack 0.710 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.259. Data: 52 FK Jablonec games / 52 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Hradec Králové 5.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.69 / Hradec Králové 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.158 / def 1.066 | Hradec Králové attack 0.710 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 53% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.67
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
27.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.95 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 19D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.14 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 11D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.52 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 48% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 23, as FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.69 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 53% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 20%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 55%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.14 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.