Slavia Praha 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Slavia Praha face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slavia Praha's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Slovan Liberec's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.60 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Slavia Praha, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Slovan Liberec — Slovan Liberec have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Slavia Praha 1–1 Slovan Liberec — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Slavia Praha an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 44% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 56% | Slovan Liberec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.19 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.566 / defence 0.845 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.259 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.143. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.566 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slovan Liberec have an above-average attack rating of 1.259, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 52 games and Slovan Liberec's last 52.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 19%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.70 | Draw 4.58 | Slovan Liberec 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Slavia Praha 2.19 / Slovan Liberec 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.566 / def 0.845 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.259 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Slavia Praha 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 59% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.57) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.26x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 52 games and Slovan Liberec's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.58
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.41
1.22
Slovan Liberec xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
2%
45.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.22 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 42W 9D 3L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Slovan Liberec's form line: 22W 16D 16L from 54 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.85 PPG from their last 27 home games (25W 2D 0L).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 9W 8D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.56 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Slovan Liberec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Slavia Praha (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 42W 9D 3L in their last 54 games (2.50 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.85 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 3-0 Slovan Liberec on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
3
Draws
0
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 7, Slovan Liberec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 1-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 41%, Slovan Liberec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Slavia Praha and 56% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 56% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slavia Praha's matches and 56% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Slavia Praha and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 70% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.19 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.57 / defence 0.84 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 19%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.