Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc host Zlin at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sigma Olomouc have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Zlin and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Zlin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Zlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Zlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.36 xG and Zlin 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.227 / defence 0.884 | Zlin attack 0.907 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Zlin's defence rating of 1.408 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sigma Olomouc's projected output up. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 44 games and Zlin's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 65% | Draw 22% | Zlin 13%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.54 | Draw 4.63 | Zlin 7.48. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.36 / 1.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 65% | Draw 22% | Zlin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.36 / Zlin 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.227 / def 0.884 | Zlin attack 0.907 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Zlin xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 65% chance of winning, Zlin a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 44 games and Zlin's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.63
13%
7.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.39
1.04
Zlin xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.48
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
9%
10.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
1%
78.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.04 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 10D 16L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.85 PPG from 48 outings (10W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.06 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 11D 27L in their last 48 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zlin away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.95 PPG; Zlin away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Zlin 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 36%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sigma Olomouc) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Zlin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 82% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.