Artis vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Artis host Teplice at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 1W 1D 6L from 8 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Teplice are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Artis register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Teplice in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 62% versus Teplice 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 75% | Teplice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.20 xG and Teplice 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.769 / defence 1.644 | Teplice attack 0.941 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Artis's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Artis games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 21% | Draw 21% | Teplice 58%. Fair-value odds: Artis 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Teplice 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Artis 75% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 21% | Draw 21% | Teplice 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Artis 1.20 / Teplice 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.769 / def 1.644 | Teplice attack 0.941 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Teplice (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Artis xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Teplice kick off?
Artis vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Teplice part of?
Artis vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 21% chance of winning, Teplice a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Artis and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Teplice in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.77x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
21%
4.74
21%
4.83
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Artis xG
Total xG
3.30
2.11
Teplice xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
3%
38.97
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Artis and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Artis and 2.11 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Artis come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 1D 6L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Artis's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Teplice in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Teplice in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Teplice have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; Teplice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Artis or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Teplice in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 67%, Teplice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 33% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 67%; Artis have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Artis's recent matches and 33% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 33% of Teplice's.
Do Artis and Teplice tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.