Zlin vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Artis at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Artis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letna plays host to Zlin versus Artis in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zlin have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Artis (all games): 1W 1D 6L across 8 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Zlin, 0.50 for Artis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Artis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 38% versus Artis 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 38% | Artis 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.00 xG and Artis 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.690 / defence 1.035 | Artis attack 0.801 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Zlin's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Zlin games / 6 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 32% | Draw 30% | Artis 38%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Artis 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Artis at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Artis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 40% | Artis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 32% | Draw 30% | Artis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Zlin 1.00 / Artis 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.690 / def 1.035 | Artis attack 0.801 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Artis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Artis xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Artis kick off?
Zlin vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Artis part of?
Zlin vs Artis is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 32% chance of winning, Artis a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Artis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zlin and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Artis in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.69x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.80x) against Zlin's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Artis Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.37
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Artis xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Zlin and 1.13 for Artis, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.38 PPG on a 1W 0D 7L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis's form line: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.38 PPG for Zlin against 0.50 for Artis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.50 PPG overall record — Artis travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.88 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Artis in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Artis away?
Artis's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.75 PPG; Artis away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Zlin) and 50% (Artis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Zlin and 50% for Artis.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 75% of games; Artis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Zlin's recent matches and 50% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Zlin's recent games and 50% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Artis tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Artis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.