Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 41%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andruv stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Plzen have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Plzen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Sigma Olomouc.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 0–1 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 52% | Plzen 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sigma Olomouc surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / defence 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.217. Sigma Olomouc have a tight defence (rating 0.618), which is pulling Plzen's projected output down. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 51 games and Plzen's last 51.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.44 | Draw 3.09 | Plzen 3.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 10% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.16 / Plzen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / def 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Plzen xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.85x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 51 games and Plzen's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.09
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.05
0.89
Plzen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.89 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 15D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 34W 10D 12L from 56 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 5D 7L from their last 27 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 10D 12L in their last 56 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.63 PPG; Plzen away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Plzen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sigma Olomouc and 59% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 59% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 78% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.62 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 52%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.