Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 4D 1L across 8 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.62 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.62 PPG clear of the hosts (1.62 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 88% and Sigma Olomouc 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 88% | Sigma Olomouc 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.65 xG and Sigma Olomouc 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.032 / defence 1.522 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.027 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.338. Data: 9 Bohemians 1905 games / 8 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 48%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 4.76 | Sigma Olomouc 2.08. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 100% | Sigma Olomouc 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.65 / Sigma Olomouc 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.032 / def 1.522 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.027 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.03x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
31%
3.25
21%
4.76
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.74
2.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
4%
26.24
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 2.09 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 2D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.00 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Bohemians 1905, 75% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bohemians 1905 and 75% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bohemians 1905's games and 75% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 75% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.65 xG and Sigma Olomouc 2.09 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.03 / defence 1.52 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 48%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 88%, Sigma Olomouc 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.