Karviná 2-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Karviná host Slovácko at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.86 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slovácko — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Slovácko 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 36% | Slovácko 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.08 xG and Slovácko 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.840 / defence 1.334 | Slovácko attack 1.248 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.250. Slovácko have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Karviná games / 13 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 19% | Draw 21% | Slovácko 60%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Slovácko 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 80% | Slovácko 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 19% | Draw 21% | Slovácko 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Karviná 1.08 / Slovácko 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.840 / def 1.334 | Slovácko attack 1.248 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Slovácko xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slovácko kick off?
Karviná vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovácko?
Karviná 2 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Karviná vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovácko part of?
Karviná vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 19% chance of winning, Slovácko a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Karviná and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Slovácko in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.84) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
19%
5.30
21%
4.84
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.16
2.08
Slovácko xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
12%
8.01
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
2%
42.46
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Karviná and 2.08 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 11 games, going 0W 4D 7L for 0.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.91 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 2.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko in 64%.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 4D 7L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.60 PPG; Slovácko away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Karviná's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
1
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovácko?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Karviná at 80%, Slovácko at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Karviná and 80% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Karviná's games and 80% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Karviná's matches and 80% of Slovácko's.
Do Karviná and Slovácko tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Slovácko share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 14, as Karviná and Slovácko drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.08 xG and Slovácko 2.08 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against Slovácko attack 1.25 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 19% | Draw 21% | Slovácko 60%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 36%, Slovácko 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.