Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karviná make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Karviná have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Karviná away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.00 for Karviná — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Karviná — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Karviná 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Karviná 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.854 / defence 0.724 | Karviná attack 1.072 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.103. Sigma Olomouc have a tight defence (rating 0.724), which is pulling Karviná's projected output down. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 55 games and Karviná's last 55.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.11 | Draw 3.25 | Karviná 4.55. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 10% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.37 / Karviná 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.854 / def 0.724 | Karviná attack 1.072 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Karviná xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.85x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.07x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 55 games and Karviná's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.25
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.22
0.86
Karviná xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.86 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 14D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.28 PPG from 57 outings (21W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.28 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 13W 5D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.33 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 14D 22L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Karviná have gone 21W 10D 26L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Karviná away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Karviná away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Karviná 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sigma Olomouc and 75% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 68% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 75% of Karviná's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 79% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Karviná share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Sigma Olomouc and Karviná drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.72 against Karviná attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Karviná 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Karviná 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.