Plzen 2-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Teplice travel to Doosan Arena to take on Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Teplice have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 7D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 4 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Teplice, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Plzen 2–1 Teplice — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data gives Plzen an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Teplice 43%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.162 / defence 0.844 | Teplice attack 0.828 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.187. Data: built from Plzen's last 56 games and Teplice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 31% | Teplice 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.12 | Draw 3.21 | Teplice 4.63. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 31% | Teplice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Plzen 1.34 / Teplice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.162 / def 0.844 | Teplice attack 0.828 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Teplice xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Teplice kick off?
Plzen vs Teplice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Plzen 2 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Plzen vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Teplice part of?
Plzen vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Plzen and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Plzen vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 56 games and Teplice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.21
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.17
0.83
Teplice xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Plzen and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Plzen and 0.83 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 37W 11D 13L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 18W 18D 25L from 61 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 30 home games (19W 6D 5L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 13D 12L from their last 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.08 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Teplice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 37W 11D 13L in their last 61 games (2.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 18W 18D 25L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Teplice away?
Plzen's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.10 PPG; Teplice away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Plzen or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won Plzen 3-0 Teplice.
Plzen's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Plzen
5
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 4, Teplice have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Teplice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 57%, Teplice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Plzen) and 37% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Plzen's games and 53% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Plzen's recent games and 37% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Plzen's recent matches and 60% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Plzen and Teplice drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.34 xG and Teplice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 31% | Teplice 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.