Plzen 0-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plzen face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Plzen) versus 2.00 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Plzen, 2 for Sparta Praha and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Plzen 1–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 56% and Sparta Praha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.300 / defence 1.081 | Sparta Praha attack 1.356 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.125. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.692, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Plzen's projected output down. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.356, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Plzen's last 52 games and Sparta Praha's last 52.
Result probabilities: Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.78 | Draw 3.88 | Sparta Praha 2.09. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 60% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Plzen 1.17 / Sparta Praha 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.300 / def 1.081 | Sparta Praha attack 1.356 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 0 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.30) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 52 games and Sparta Praha's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.88
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Plzen and 1.65 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 35W 10D 12L from 57 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 13L across 57 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.02 PPG, Sparta Praha on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 19W 5D 5L from their last 29 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 16W 5D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 67%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 10D 12L in their last 57 games (2.02 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 33W 11D 13L in their last 57 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.14 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Sparta Praha.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Plzen
4
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 4, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Plzen 1-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Sparta Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 59% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Sparta Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Plzen's games and 59% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 59% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Plzen's recent matches and 79% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Plzen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Plzen and Sparta Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.02 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.