Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plzen at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians 1905 away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Plzen 1–0 Bohemians 1905 — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data gives Plzen an edge — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Bohemians 1905 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.155 / defence 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.980 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.103. Data: built from Plzen's last 55 games and Bohemians 1905's last 55.
Result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.16 | Draw 3.44 | Bohemians 1905 4.06. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 50% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Plzen 1.48 / Bohemians 1905 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.155 / def 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.980 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Plzen 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.16) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 55 games and Bohemians 1905's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Plzen and 1.02 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 59 games, going 35W 11D 13L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.14 PPG from 59 outings (17W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 18W 6D 5L across their last 29 home games, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.97 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 11D 13L in their last 59 games (1.97 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.07 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Plzen or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won Plzen 6-0 Bohemians 1905.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Bohemians 1905 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 41% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Plzen's recent matches and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Plzen's recent matches and 69% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.