Pardubice 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pardubice face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Pardubice have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Teplice away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Pardubice, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Pardubice 0–0 Teplice — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Teplice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.87 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.797 / defence 1.151 | Teplice attack 0.784 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Teplice's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Pardubice's last 53 games and Teplice's last 53.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.44 | Draw 2.88 | Teplice 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 60% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Pardubice 0.87 / Teplice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.797 / def 1.151 | Teplice attack 0.784 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Teplice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Teplice xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Teplice a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.78x) against Pardubice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 53 games and Teplice's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
29%
3.44
35%
2.88
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.87
1.00
Teplice xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.00 for Teplice, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 14D 31L from 58 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 25L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Pardubice against 1.19 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 9W 8D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 11D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 14D 31L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while Teplice have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; Teplice away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pardubice and Teplice, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won Teplice 3-0 Pardubice on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Teplice 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pardubice) and 39% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 32% of games; Teplice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pardubice's recent games and 39% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Pardubice's recent matches and 61% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 24, as Pardubice and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.87 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Teplice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.91 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.