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Poisson rates Teplice at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Dukla Praha 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.913 / defence 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Data: 54 Teplice games / 54 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 5.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 3 | Dukla Praha 0W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 7 – 5 Dukla Praha • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Teplice 25% / Draw 75% / Dukla Praha 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 28% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 3.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.22 (38% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 100% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 42% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
📈 Recent Form
• Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D • Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Teplice home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Dukla Praha away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Teplice lead by 1.20 PPG (1.50 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Teplice): Poisson projects 1.44 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Dukla Praha): Poisson projects 0.78 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.50 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.22 (38% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Teplice — Teplice at 52% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 1.44 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.913 / def 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Teplice (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 52% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
• Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 3 | Dukla Praha 0W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 7 – 5 Dukla Praha • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Teplice 25% / Draw 75% / Dukla Praha 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 28% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 3.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.22 (38% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 100% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 42% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in?
• Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D • Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Teplice home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Dukla Praha away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Teplice lead by 1.20 PPG (1.50 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Teplice): Poisson projects 1.44 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Dukla Praha): Poisson projects 0.78 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.50 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.22 (38% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Teplice — Teplice at 52% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture