Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec meet at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, FK Jablonec have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–2 FK Jablonec — a FK Jablonec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus FK Jablonec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | FK Jablonec 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG and FK Jablonec 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.026 / defence 1.309 | FK Jablonec attack 1.186 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 53 games and FK Jablonec's last 53.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 49%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.99 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 2.04. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 70% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.18 / FK Jablonec 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.026 / def 1.309 | FK Jablonec attack 1.186 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 25% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.19x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 53 games and FK Jablonec's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
25%
3.99
26%
3.85
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.90
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
22.36
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.72 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 16D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.86 PPG from 58 outings (32W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 7W 10D 12L across their last 29 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (15W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.57 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 16D 27L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 32W 12D 14L in their last 58 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.07 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec on 28 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: FK Jablonec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 59%, FK Jablonec 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 41%; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 28% of games; FK Jablonec in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 38% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 38% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 76% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG and FK Jablonec 1.72 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 1.31 against FK Jablonec attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 49%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, FK Jablonec 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.