České Budějovice 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 6W 0D 4L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Karviná (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 0W 0D 5L from 5 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.70 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Karviná in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: České Budějovice 1W, Karviná 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — České Budějovice 80% and Karviná 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (České Budějovice 80% | Karviná 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 2.73 xG and Karviná 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.079 / defence 1.299 | Karviná attack 0.786 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.196. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 České Budějovice games / 10 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 69% | Draw 16% | Karviná 15%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Karviná 6.67. The model has a clear lean to České Budějovice (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 80% | Karviná 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 69% | Draw 16% | Karviná 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 66% | xG České Budějovice 2.73 / Karviná 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.079 / def 1.299 | Karviná attack 0.786 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Karviná xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Karviná kick off?
České Budějovice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Karviná?
České Budějovice 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is České Budějovice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Karviná part of?
České Budějovice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 69% chance of winning, Karviná a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both České Budějovice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Karviná?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and Karviná in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Karviná (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.08) and Karviná's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.79x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
69%
1.44
16%
6.21
15%
6.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.96
1.22
Karviná xG
1.44
69%
Home win
6.21
16%
Draw
6.82
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
6%
15.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
1%
105.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.22 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 2W 1D 7L from 10 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 7L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.70 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Karviná's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karviná's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.50 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Karviná in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Karviná in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Karviná have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Karviná away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.20 PPG; Karviná away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
4
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Karviná?
From 7 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Karviná have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Karviná?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for České Budějovice, 80% for Karviná — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for České Budějovice and 80% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of České Budějovice's games and 80% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of České Budějovice's matches and 80% of Karviná's.
Do České Budějovice and Karviná tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Karviná 1-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 2.73 xG and Karviná 1.22 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Karviná landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.08 / defence 1.30 against Karviná attack 0.79 / defence 1.43, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 69% | Draw 16% | Karviná 15%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 80%, Karviná 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.70 PPG, Karviná 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.