Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hradec Králové face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Zlin meet at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hradec Králové at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Zlin (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Zlin have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hradec Králové's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Hradec Králové, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Zlin — Zlin have 1 win, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Hradec Králové 2–1 Zlin — a Hradec Králové win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Hradec Králové and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Zlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Zlin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.66 xG and Zlin 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.192 / defence 0.788 | Zlin attack 0.680 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.189. Zlin's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Hradec Králové have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Zlin's projected output down. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 52 games and Zlin's last 22.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 61% | Draw 26% | Zlin 13%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.64 | Draw 3.79 | Zlin 7.91. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 61% | Draw 26% | Zlin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.66 / Zlin 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.192 / def 0.788 | Zlin attack 0.680 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Zlin xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Zlin kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Hradec Králové 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Zlin part of?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 61% chance of winning, Zlin a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hradec Králové and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Hradec Králové vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.19) and Zlin's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.68x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 52 games and Zlin's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.79
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.30
0.64
Zlin xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
2%
41.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.64 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 8W 6D 8L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Zlin's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.23 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 10 home games (5W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zlin have gone 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Zlin away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.80 PPG; Zlin away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won Zlin 4-0 Hradec Králové on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Zlin 1-2 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Zlin 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 30% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zlin in 40%; Zlin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 30% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 30% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 70% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hradec Králové's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 23, as Hradec Králové and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.66 xG and Zlin 0.64 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.19 / defence 0.79 against Zlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 61% | Draw 26% | Zlin 13%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 50%, Zlin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG, Zlin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.