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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Teplice encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.

Teplice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Teplice — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Teplice 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Teplice 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / defence 0.984 | Teplice attack 0.934 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Data: 49 FK Jablonec games / 49 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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