FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.
Teplice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FK Jablonec and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Teplice — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Teplice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Teplice 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / defence 0.984 | Teplice attack 0.934 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Data: 49 FK Jablonec games / 49 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.38 / Teplice 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / def 0.984 | Teplice attack 0.934 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Teplice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Teplice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 5W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.93x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.61
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Teplice xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.16 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 54 games, going 29W 11D 14L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.20 PPG from 54 outings (17W 14D 23L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (5W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 29W 11D 14L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Teplice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.96 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Teplice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Teplice 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 42%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 42% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 42% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Teplice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Teplice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Teplice 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.