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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 0.50 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 3W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 64% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.021 / defence 1.385 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.833 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Data: 49 Mlada Boleslav games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 40%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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