Slovan Liberec 2-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Zlin at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion U Nisy: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion U Nisy. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zlin have posted 4W 1D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Zlin 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 47% versus Zlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Zlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.56 xG and Zlin 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.050 / defence 0.786 | Zlin attack 0.813 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.286. Slovan Liberec's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Slovan Liberec games / 19 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 25% | Zlin 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Zlin lead the H2H ledger, but Slovan Liberec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 30% | Zlin 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 25% | Zlin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.56 / Zlin 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.050 / def 0.786 | Zlin attack 0.813 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Zlin xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 55% chance of winning, Zlin a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
Record (7 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 1 | Zlin 4W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Zlin in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.05) and Zlin's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.92
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.38
0.82
Zlin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.82 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 8W 7D 4L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.63 PPG, Zlin on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.37 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 8W 7D 4L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Zlin away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.67 PPG; Zlin away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zlin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Zlin runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Zlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Zlin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Slovan Liberec and 44% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Zlin in 33%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 33% of games; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 44% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 44% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Zlin tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Zlin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Zlin 2-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.56 xG and Zlin 0.82 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zlin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Zlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 25% | Zlin 20%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Zlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.63 PPG, Zlin 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.