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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Slavia Praha.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Arnosta Kostala — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season.

Slavia Praha have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pardubice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Slavia Praha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Slavia Praha have the stronger historical record — 9 wins to Pardubice's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Slavia Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 9 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Slavia Praha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | Slavia Praha 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.840 / defence 1.104 | Slavia Praha attack 1.235 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.280. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Pardubice games / 49 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 54%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.85. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.

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