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Poisson model rates Teplice at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 3W 2D 5L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.40 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Teplice, 4 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Slovácko winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Teplice in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Slovácko 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 47% | Slovácko 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.42 xG and Slovácko 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.880 / defence 0.984 | Slovácko attack 0.568 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Teplice games / 48 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 54% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 18%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Slovácko 5.56. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Slovácko 40% BTTS from recent games.

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