Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hradec Králové, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Sigma Olomouc.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 53% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / defence 0.675 | Hradec Králové attack 1.079 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.675 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Sigma Olomouc games / 49 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 4.17. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Hradec Králové 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.38 / Hradec Králové 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / def 0.675 | Hradec Králové attack 1.079 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 5W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.51
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.31
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.92 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 18W 15D 20L from 53 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 19L across 53 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 12W 5D 9L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.32 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.58 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Hradec Králové 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sigma Olomouc and 58% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 46% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 58% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.68 against Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.