FK Jablonec 0-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 58% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Slovácko's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.40 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of FK Jablonec: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Slovácko, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended FK Jablonec 2–0 Slovácko — a FK Jablonec win.
The head-to-head data gives FK Jablonec an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Slovácko 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Slovácko 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Slovácko 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.023 / defence 0.880 | Slovácko attack 0.611 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.268. Slovácko's attack rating of 0.611 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 50 games and Slovácko's last 50.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 16%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.71 | Draw 3.90 | Slovácko 6.30. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (FK Jablonec 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 50% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.57 / Slovácko 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.023 / def 0.880 | Slovácko attack 0.611 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Slovácko xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 58% chance of winning, Slovácko a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.02) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 50 games and Slovácko's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.90
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.25
0.68
Slovácko xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
3%
30.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.68 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 55 games, going 30W 11D 14L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.96 PPG from 55 outings (12W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 16W 7D 4L across their last 27 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 27 away games (3W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.80 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 30W 11D 14L in their last 55 games (1.84 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 12W 17D 26L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovácko away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.04 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.59 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Slovácko in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 6, Slovácko have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 41%, Slovácko 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 44% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Slovácko in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 37% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 44% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 70% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 21, as FK Jablonec and Slovácko drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Slovácko 0.68 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Slovácko attack 0.61 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 16%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.