Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andrův stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–0 Mlada Boleslav — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 61% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Mlada Boleslav 56%). Note also that Mlada Boleslav surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Sigma Olomouc recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.49 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.904 / defence 1.112 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.051 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.196. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 40 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 39.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.52 | Draw 4.03 | Mlada Boleslav 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.49 / Mlada Boleslav 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.904 / def 1.112 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.051 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Mlada Boleslav xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 4 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.05x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 40 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.03
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.89
1.40
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.40 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 17W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 13D 14L from 41 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.34 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 5D 6L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 3D 10L from their last 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.39 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.60 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 65%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 60% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 75% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 4-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.49 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Mlada Boleslav 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.54 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.