Karviná 5-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karviná at 37%, yet in-form Slovan Liberec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Slovan Liberec meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Karviná's record over their last 9 games: 1W 1D 7L (0.44 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Karviná have posted 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.44 — Karviná are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.56 PPG clear of Karviná over their recent games (1.00 vs 0.44). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Karviná's last 4 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Slovan Liberec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Slovan Liberec edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2022, ended Karviná 1–2 Slovan Liberec — a Slovan Liberec win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 78% and Slovan Liberec 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 67% | Slovan Liberec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.21 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.766 / defence 1.123 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.860 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.203. Karviná's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Karviná's last 9 games and Slovan Liberec's last 39.
Result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 35%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.68 | Draw 3.59 | Slovan Liberec 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovan Liberec (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Karviná 75% (last 4 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Karviná 1.21 / Slovan Liberec 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.766 / def 1.123 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.860 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Karviná (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Slovan Liberec xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Karviná 5 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 37% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Karviná and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Karviná vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.77) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.86x) against Karviná's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 9 games and Slovan Liberec's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.59
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.37
1.16
Slovan Liberec xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Karviná and 1.16 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná's recent record stands at 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 3L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.44 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across their last 4 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Karviná vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Karviná's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 6-0 Karviná on 9 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Karviná, 75% for Slovan Liberec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 25% (Slovan Liberec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Karviná's games and 75% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Karviná and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 25% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 75% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karviná run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Slovan Liberec 5-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.21 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.16 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 35%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 67%, Slovan Liberec 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Karviná winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.