Zlin 1-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zlin face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zlin welcome České Budějovice to Stadion Letná in Czech Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zlin — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Zlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, České Budějovice have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
České Budějovice's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Zlin) versus 0.60 (České Budějovice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Zlin's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Zlin, 0 for České Budějovice and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Zlin 5–1 České Budějovice — a Zlin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 66% and České Budějovice 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 63% | České Budějovice 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 2.11 xG and České Budějovice 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.901 / defence 1.394 | České Budějovice attack 0.875 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.203. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zlin's projected output up. Zlin's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Data: built from Zlin's last 39 games and České Budějovice's last 39.
Result probabilities: Zlin 52% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 27%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.91 | Draw 4.78 | České Budějovice 3.76. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 70% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 52% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Zlin 2.11 / České Budějovice 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.901 / def 1.394 | České Budějovice attack 0.875 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Zlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.47
České Budějovice xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Zlin vs České Budějovice kick off?
Zlin vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Zlin 1 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Zlin vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs České Budějovice part of?
Zlin vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 52% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Zlin and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.90) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 39 games and České Budějovice's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.78
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.58
1.47
České Budějovice xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
3%
31.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Zlin and 1.47 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 12D 20L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 23L across 41 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.95 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 8W 4D 8L from their last 20 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 4W 3D 13L across their last 20 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.22 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Zlin vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 13W 5D 23L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or České Budějovice away?
Zlin's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.40 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2023, when Zlin won Zlin 5-1 České Budějovice.
Zlin's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Zlin
5
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and České Budějovice?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 2, České Budějovice have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2024: Zlin 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and České Budějovice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 70%, České Budějovice at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Zlin and 65% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Zlin's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Zlin's matches and 65% of České Budějovice's.
Do Zlin and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Zlin's recent matches and 80% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 10, as Zlin and České Budějovice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 2.11 xG and České Budějovice 1.47 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.39 against České Budějovice attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 52% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 27%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 63%, České Budějovice 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.95 PPG, České Budějovice 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.