Dukla Praha 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dukla Praha face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Dukla Praha (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Dukla Praha at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.80 for Zlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Dukla Praha 1–1 Zlin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dukla Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 43% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dukla Praha 29% | Zlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.779 / defence 1.175 | Zlin attack 0.763 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Zlin's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 51 games and Zlin's last 21.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.60 | Draw 3.37 | Zlin 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dukla Praha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.21 / Zlin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.779 / def 1.175 | Zlin attack 0.763 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zlin xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Dukla Praha 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Zlin part of?
Dukla Praha vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 39% chance of winning, Zlin a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dukla Praha and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.78) and Zlin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.76x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 51 games and Zlin's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.37
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Zlin xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.08 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dukla Praha come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 8D 11L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dukla Praha's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 10 away games (4W 1D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Dukla Praha vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Zlin?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 0, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 50%, Zlin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Dukla Praha and 40% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 30% of games; Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 40% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dukla Praha and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 40% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 80% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dukla Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Zlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 29%, Zlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.