Dukla Praha 1-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dukla Praha face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dukla Praha welcome Karviná to Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Dukla Praha's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Karviná stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Karviná have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Dukla Praha) versus 0.70 (Karviná). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Karviná and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Dukla Praha 0–2 Karviná — a Karviná win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 69%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Karviná in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Karviná 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Karviná 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.08 xG and Karviná 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.686 / defence 1.040 | Karviná attack 0.968 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.178. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 58 games and Karviná's last 58.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 31% | Draw 33% | Karviná 36%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.23 | Draw 3.04 | Karviná 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 30% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 31% | Draw 33% | Karviná 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.08 / Karviná 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.686 / def 1.040 | Karviná attack 0.968 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Karviná (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Karviná xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Karviná kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Karviná?
Dukla Praha 1 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Karviná part of?
Dukla Praha vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 31% chance of winning, Karviná a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dukla Praha and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 58 games and Karviná's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
31%
3.23
33%
3.04
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.27
1.19
Karviná xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.19 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 23D 27L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 22W 11D 27L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Karviná are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.07 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 10D 12L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 10W 5D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.35 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Dukla Praha vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Karviná in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 10W 23D 27L in their last 60 games (0.88 PPG), while Karviná have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Karviná away?
Karviná's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.07 PPG; Karviná away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Karviná have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Karviná?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 0, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Dukla Praha 1-2 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Karviná?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 52%, Karviná 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dukla Praha) and 76% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 31% of games; Karviná in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dukla Praha's games and 69% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dukla Praha and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Dukla Praha's matches and 76% of Karviná's.
Do Dukla Praha and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 79% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Dukla Praha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Dukla Praha 1-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.08 xG and Karviná 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.69 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 31% | Draw 33% | Karviná 36%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Karviná 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.