Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
České Budějovice away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bohemians 1905. A 1.00 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, České Budějovice have the stronger record — 5 wins to Bohemians 1905's 1, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 0–0 České Budějovice — a draw.
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus České Budějovice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.60 xG and České Budějovice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 1.398 | České Budějovice attack 0.877 / defence 1.706. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.206. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.706 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 50 games and České Budějovice's last 50.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 62% | Draw 18% | České Budějovice 20%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.62 | Draw 5.54 | České Budějovice 4.92. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.60 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), but Bohemians 1905 carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 62% | Draw 18% | České Budějovice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Bohemians 1905 2.60 / České Budějovice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 1.398 | České Budějovice attack 0.877 / def 1.706 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
České Budějovice xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 62% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.02) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.71), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.88x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 50 games and České Budějovice's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
62%
1.62
18%
5.54
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
4.08
1.48
České Budějovice xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
7%
13.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
2%
66.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.48 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 15W 19D 21L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 34L across 55 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 10D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 7D 20L across their last 27 away games, a 0.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.89 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 13D 34L in their last 55 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or České Budějovice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won České Budějovice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, České Budějovice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 52%, České Budějovice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 67% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 41% of games; České Budějovice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bohemians 1905's games and 59% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 67% of České Budějovice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 78% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.60 xG and České Budějovice 1.48 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 1.40 against České Budějovice attack 0.88 / defence 1.71, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 62% | Draw 18% | České Budějovice 20%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.