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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 2, Bohemians 1905 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Hradec Králové winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 41% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 39% | Bohemians 1905 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / defence 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.174. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Hradec Králové games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.

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