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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as České Budějovice welcome Dukla Praha to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: České Budějovice 0.20 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Dukla Praha winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

České Budějovice trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 74% of games.

Dukla Praha trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 26% versus Dukla Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Dukla Praha 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.18 xG and Dukla Praha 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.577 / defence 1.392 | Dukla Praha attack 0.679 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.219. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 České Budějovice games / 19 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dukla Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 10% | Dukla Praha 44% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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