České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, FK Jablonec in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: České Budějovice 3W, FK Jablonec 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 0–5 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus FK Jablonec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.508 / defence 1.297 | FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.139. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.508 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 České Budějovice games / 51 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 10% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG České Budějovice 0.71 / FK Jablonec 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.508 / def 1.297 | FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 2 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 18% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Record (8 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.51) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.01x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
18%
5.68
26%
3.82
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
25.41
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.50 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.66 PPG on a 8W 13D 35L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 19W 17D 20L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L). That's noticeably better than their 0.66 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 9D 13L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 13D 35L in their last 56 games (0.66 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.11 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.89 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 37%, FK Jablonec 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (České Budějovice) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 52% of games; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of České Budějovice's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out České Budějovice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 2-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.51 / defence 1.30 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 18% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 56%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.66. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.