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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FK Jablonec, 1.30 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Bohemians 1905 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.

It is worth noting that Bohemians 1905 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Bohemians 1905 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.292 / defence 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.198. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 FK Jablonec games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.

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