FK Jablonec 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FK Jablonec, 1.30 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Bohemians 1905 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians 1905 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Bohemians 1905 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.292 / defence 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.198. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 FK Jablonec games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.72 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.292 / def 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 55% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (6 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.92x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.89
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.65
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
29.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 17D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.13 PPG from 54 outings (14W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.13 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 18W 17D 19L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.81 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.15 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Bohemians 1905 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 58% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.29 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.31 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.