🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Slavia Praha.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Slavia Praha have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the last 7 meetings, Slavia Praha have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Pardubice's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Slavia Praha 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.83 xG and Slavia Praha 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.845 / defence 0.972 | Slavia Praha attack 1.190 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.173. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Pardubice games / 50 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 23% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 49%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 2.04. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Slavia Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights