Bohemians 1905 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zlin travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians 1905 stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Zlin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.80 PPG, Zlin 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bohemians 1905: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Zlin, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Bohemians 1905 1–0 Zlin — a Bohemians 1905 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Zlin trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 37% versus Zlin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 37% | Zlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.714 / defence 0.954 | Zlin attack 0.767 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Zlin's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Zlin's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 57 games and Zlin's last 27.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.27 | Draw 3.09 | Zlin 4.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 1905 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.26 / Zlin 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.714 / def 0.954 | Zlin attack 0.767 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 44% chance of winning, Zlin a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.71) and Zlin's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 57 games and Zlin's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.09
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.12
0.86
Zlin xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.86 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 7W 6D 14L from 27 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 12L across 27 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.00 PPG, Zlin on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 3W 3D 7L from their last 13 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 0.92 PPG; Zlin away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won Zlin 1-4 Bohemians 1905.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 31% BTTS, Zlin 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Bohemians 1905 and 38% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zlin in 38%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 46% of games; Zlin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 38% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 38% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 69% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 2-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Zlin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.71 / defence 0.95 against Zlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 32% | Zlin 24%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 37%, Zlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG, Zlin 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.