Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bohemians 1905 face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha have the stronger record — 7 wins to Bohemians 1905's 0, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended Bohemians 1905 1–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sparta Praha 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.779 / defence 0.968 | Sparta Praha attack 1.107 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bohemians 1905's projected output down. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 59 games and Sparta Praha's last 59.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.64 | Draw 3.04 | Sparta Praha 2.20. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Bohemians 1905 0.80 / Sparta Praha 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.779 / def 0.968 | Sparta Praha attack 1.107 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sparta Praha xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.11x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 59 games and Sparta Praha's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
22%
4.64
33%
3.04
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.06
1.26
Sparta Praha xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.26 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 16D 28L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 37W 12D 14L from 63 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 31 home games (9W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 16W 6D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.89 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 65%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 37W 12D 14L in their last 63 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.16 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Bohemians 1905 2-6 Sparta Praha on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, Sparta Praha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 55% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 36%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 55% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 55% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 81% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sparta Praha 2-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.