Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Plzen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 1.00 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Baník Ostrava 3W, Plzen 5W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Plzen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Plzen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.949 / defence 1.149 | Plzen attack 1.092 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Data: 59 Baník Ostrava games / 59 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 30% | Plzen 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.10 / Plzen 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.949 / def 1.149 | Plzen attack 1.092 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 26% chance of winning, Plzen a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 1 | Plzen 5W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.95x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.09x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
26%
3.80
30%
3.39
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.58
1.48
Plzen xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.48 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 64 games, going 27W 12D 25L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.94 PPG from 64 outings (37W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 16W 4D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.84 points per game from 31 outings (17W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.88 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 25L in their last 64 games (1.45 PPG), while Plzen have gone 37W 13D 14L in their last 64 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.68 PPG; Plzen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plzen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 45%, Plzen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Baník Ostrava) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Plzen in 36%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 29% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 48% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.48 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.