🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face FK Jablonec.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Championship Group - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

FK Jablonec away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Sparta Praha winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 65% versus FK Jablonec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | FK Jablonec 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.27 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.584 / defence 1.025 | FK Jablonec attack 1.008 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.584 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 60% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 19%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | FK Jablonec 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 80% | FK Jablonec 20%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights