🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians 1905, 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Sigma Olomouc 3W, 3D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / defence 0.849 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.049 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights