Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bohemians 1905, 1.90 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Sigma Olomouc 4W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / defence 0.823 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.888 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 34 Bohemians 1905 games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.19 / Sigma Olomouc 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / def 0.823 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.888 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.89x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.45
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.20
1.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.01 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (16W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.49 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 7D 14L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Sigma Olomouc 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 72% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Bohemians 1905's games and 72% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 72% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.