Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 4W 6D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Baník Ostrava are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 32% versus Mlada Boleslav 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 38% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.20 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.808 / defence 0.926 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.143 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 35 Baník Ostrava games / 35 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 43%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 10% | Mlada Boleslav 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.20 / Mlada Boleslav 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.808 / def 0.926 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.143 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 31% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 4 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.81x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.89
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.67
1.46
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.46 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 12W 7D 21L from 40 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 13L across 40 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.08 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 8W 3D 9L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 15D 13L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.35 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 20%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Baník Ostrava) and 60% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.