Pardubice vs Slovácko – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Slovácko travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Pardubice) versus 0.80 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Slovácko, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Pardubice.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Slovácko winning.
It is worth noting that Slovácko have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 71% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Slovácko 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.35 xG and Slovácko 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.814 / defence 1.098 | Slovácko attack 0.798 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 36 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 33%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Slovácko 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Pardubice 1.35 / Slovácko 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.814 / def 1.098 | Slovácko attack 0.798 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Slovácko xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Slovácko a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 3 | Slovácko 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.77
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.56
1.21
Slovácko xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.21 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 21L across 38 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.18 PPG, Slovácko on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 8W 9D 21L in their last 38 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Pardubice's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.11 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 74%, Slovácko 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pardubice) and 42% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pardubice's games and 47% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.