Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.50 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 3W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 58% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.68 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.102 / defence 0.853 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 Mlada Boleslav games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 23%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 4.35. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.68 / Bohemians 1905 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.102 / def 0.853 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 52% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 5 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.10) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.95x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.95
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.71
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
23.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.04 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 14D 12L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.18 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.26 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 63%, Bohemians 1905 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 47% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.