Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 5 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Baník Ostrava 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.97 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / defence 1.001 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 40 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 61% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 17%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Baník Ostrava 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Baník Ostrava lead the H2H ledger, but Sigma Olomouc carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 61% | Draw 22% | Baník Ostrava 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.97 / Baník Ostrava 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.105 / def 1.001 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.803 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 61% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.10x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.61
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.90
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
42.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.94 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 9D 15L from 45 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 25L across 45 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baník Ostrava heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.02 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.86 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 36%, Baník Ostrava 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 41% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.