Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 2.10 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 5 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Baník Ostrava 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / defence 1.002 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Sigma Olomouc games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 28%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 3.57. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.72 / Baník Ostrava 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / def 1.002 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.893 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.19x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.21
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.95
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.24 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 18W 8D 14L from 40 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 21L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baník Ostrava heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.84 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 42%, Baník Ostrava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sigma Olomouc) and 42% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 42% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.