Plzen vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plzen and Artis meet at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plzen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Artis (all games): 1W 1D 6L across 8 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Plzen's favour (1.60 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Artis half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 62% and Artis 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Plzen 62% | Artis 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.47 xG and Artis 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.007 / defence 1.102 | Artis attack 0.797 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 35 Plzen games / 6 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 26% | Artis 31%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Artis 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Artis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 26% | Artis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Plzen 1.47 / Artis 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.007 / def 1.102 | Artis attack 0.797 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Artis xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Artis kick off?
Plzen vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Artis part of?
Plzen vs Artis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 43% chance of winning, Artis a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plzen and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Artis in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.01x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.80x) against Plzen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 35/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.89
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.22
Artis xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Plzen and 1.22 for Artis, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 2W 4D 2L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis's form line: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.50 PPG overall record — Artis travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.88 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Artis in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Artis in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Artis away?
Plzen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.25 PPG; Artis away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Plzen, 50% for Artis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plzen) and 50% (Artis).
On the defensive side: Artis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Artis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Plzen's games and 50% of Artis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plzen's recent games and 50% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Artis tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Artis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.