Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pardubice at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Pardubice have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pardubice away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Pardubice are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Bohemians 1905 1–1 Pardubice — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 44% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Pardubice 44%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.07 xG and Pardubice 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.690 / defence 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.323 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.190. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Pardubice have an above-average attack rating of 1.323, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 50 games and Pardubice's last 50.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.49 | Draw 4.08 | Pardubice 1.88. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 70% (last 10 away games).

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