Artis vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Artis host Teplice at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 home games — 0.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Teplice are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Teplice in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 54% versus Teplice 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 73% | Teplice 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.80 xG and Teplice 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.604 / defence 1.447 | Teplice attack 1.207 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Artis's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Artis games / 39 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 11% | Draw 21% | Teplice 68%. Fair-value odds: Artis 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Teplice 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Artis 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 11% | Draw 21% | Teplice 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Artis 0.80 / Teplice 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.604 / def 1.447 | Teplice attack 1.207 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Teplice (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Artis xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Teplice xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Teplice kick off?
Artis vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Teplice part of?
Artis vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 11% chance of winning, Teplice a 68% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Artis and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Teplice in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.60x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
11%
9.20
21%
4.71
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Artis xG
Total xG
3.01
2.20
Teplice xG
9.20
11%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
11%
9.04
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
1%
83.19
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Artis and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Artis and 2.20 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Artis come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 2D 8L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (7W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Artis's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Teplice in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Teplice in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Teplice have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.20 PPG; Teplice away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Artis or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Teplice in 45%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 40%, Teplice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Artis and 40% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 60%; Artis have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Artis's recent matches and 40% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Artis's matches and 40% of Teplice's.
Do Artis and Teplice tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Teplice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.