Artis vs Teplice Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Teplice at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Artis face Teplice.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Artis host Teplice at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Artis stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Artis at home: 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Teplice have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Artis 0.90 PPG, Teplice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 62% of Artis's games and 60% of Teplice's (from Artis's last 8 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Artis have won 0, Teplice 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Artis 0–0 Teplice — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Artis in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Teplice in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 62% versus Teplice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 75% | Teplice 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.87 xG and Teplice 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.725 / defence 1.475 | Teplice attack 1.177 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Artis's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Artis's defence rating of 1.475 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Artis's last 14 games and Teplice's last 44.

Result probabilities: Artis 11% | Draw 22% | Teplice 67%. Fair-value odds: Artis 8.83 | Draw 4.54 | Teplice 1.50. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (67%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Artis's last 8 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Artis 62% (last 8 home games) | Teplice 60% (last 10 away games).

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