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Poisson model rates Teplice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 2D 4L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.50 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Teplice, 4 for Slovácko and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Standings Snapshot

Slovácko hold the table advantage, sitting 1st with 0 points — 12 positions and 0 points clear of Teplice in 13th.

Teplice's home record this season stands at 0W 0D 0L. On the road, Slovácko's record stands at 0W 0D 0L this term. Teplice: Chance Liga (Relegation Group). Slovácko: Promotion - Chance Liga (Championship Group).

In-Play Profile

Teplice in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovácko 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Slovácko 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.30 xG and Slovácko 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.855 / defence 0.964 | Slovácko attack 0.947 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Slovácko games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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